Contested modelling

We suggest that the role and function of expert computational modelling in real-world decision-making needs scrutiny and practices need to change. We discuss some empirical and theory-based improvements to the coupling of the modelling process and the real world, including social and behavioural processes, which we have expressed as a set of questions that we believe need to be answered by all projects engaged in such modelling.  These are based on a systems analysis of four research initiatives, covering different scales and timeframes, and addressing the complexity of intervention in a sustainability context. Our proposed improvements require new approaches for analysing the relationship between a project’s models and its publics.  They reflect what we believe is a necessary and beneficial dialogue between the realms of expert scientific modelling and systems thinking.  This paper is an attempt to start that process, itself reflecting a robust dialogue between two practitioners sat within differing traditions, puzzling how to integrate perspectives and achieve wider participation in researching this problem space.&nbsp

Assessment of the risk due to release of carbon fiber in civil aircraft accidents, phase 2

The risk associated with the potential use of carbon fiber composite material in commercial jet aircraft is investigated. A simulation model developed to generate risk profiles for several airports is described. The risk profiles show the probability that the cost due to accidents in any year exceeds a given amount. The computer model simulates aircraft accidents with fire, release of fibers, their downwind transport and infiltration of buildings, equipment failures, and resulting ecomomic impact. The individual airport results were combined to yield the national risk profile

Critical Temperature of a Trapped Bose Gas: Mean-Field Theory and Fluctuations

We investigate the possibilities of distinguishing the mean-field and fluctuation effects on the critical temperature of a trapped Bose gas with repulsive interatomic interactions. Since in a direct measurement of the critical temperature as a function of the number of trapped atoms these effects are small compared to the ideal gas results, we propose to observe Bose-Einstein condensation by adiabatically ramping down the trapping frequency. Moreover, analyzing this adiabatic cooling scheme, we show that fluctuation effects can lead to the formation of a Bose condensate at frequencies which are much larger than those predicted by the mean-field theory.Comment: 4 pages of ReVTeX and 3 figures. Submitted to Physical Review

Refined Simulations of the Reaction Front for Diffusion-Limited Two-Species Annihilation in One Dimension

Extensive simulations are performed of the diffusion-limited reaction A$+$B$\to 0$ in one dimension, with initially separated reagents. The reaction rate profile, and the probability distributions of the separation and midpoint of the nearest-neighbour pair of A and B particles, are all shown to exhibit dynamic scaling, independently of the presence of fluctuations in the initial state and of an exclusion principle in the model. The data is consistent with all lengthscales behaving as $t^{1/4}$ as $t\to\infty$. Evidence of multiscaling, found by other authors, is discussed in the light of these findings.Comment: Resubmitted as TeX rather than Postscript file. RevTeX version 3.0, 10 pages with 16 Encapsulated Postscript figures (need epsf). University of Geneva preprint UGVA/DPT 1994/10-85

The Mystery of the Ramsey Fringe that Didn't Chirp

We use precision microwave spectroscopy of magnetically trapped, ultra-cold 87Rb to characterize intra- and inter-state density correlations. The cold collision shifts for both normal and condensed clouds are measured. The results verify the presence of the sometimes controversial "factors of two", in normal-cloud mean-field energies, both within a particular state and between two distinct spin species. One might expect that as two spin species decohere, the inter-state factor of two would revert to unity, but the associated frequency chirp one naively expects from such a trend is not observed in our data.Comment: Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Atomic Physics (ICAP 2002

The Reaction-Diffusion Front for A+B→∅A+B \to\emptyset in One Dimension

We study theoretically and numerically the steady state diffusion controlled reaction $A+B\rightarrow\emptyset$, where currents $J$ of $A$ and $B$ particles are applied at opposite boundaries. For a reaction rate $\lambda$, and equal diffusion constants $D$, we find that when $\lambda J^{-1/2} D^{-1/2}\ll 1$ the reaction front is well described by mean field theory. However, for $\lambda J^{-1/2} D^{-1/2}\gg 1$, the front acquires a Gaussian profile - a result of noise induced wandering of the reaction front center. We make a theoretical prediction for this profile which is in good agreement with simulation. Finally, we investigate the intrinsic (non-wandering) front width and find results consistent with scaling and field theoretic predictions.Comment: 11 pages, revtex, 4 separate PostScript figure